Geopolitics of Turkey in Asia

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Geopolitics of Turkey in Asia
Uploader CaspianReport
Upload date 1 January 2018
Duration 17:51
Category News & Politics
License Standard YouTube License
Views 26910
Likes 1622
Dislikes 42
Comments 665
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Maximum quality 720p60 HD
Data were taken on 2 January 2018.

Geopolitics of Turkey in Asia is a video uploaded by CaspianReport, detailing Turkey's future goals in its Asian side.

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Published on Jan 1, 2018
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BAKU - Turkey is a transcontinental power, and, while the European side of the country is secure and calm, the situation could not be more different on the Asian front. The collapse of the Sykes-Picot agreement is disintegrating the territorial borders from within and in the subsequent vacuum of power, major nations seek to carve out their own spheres of influence. All these activities, directly and indirectly, affect Turkey and determine the country’s geopolitical objectives in Asia.

Soundtrack:
Dreams Become Real by Kevin MacLeod (incompetech.com)
Licensed under Creative Commons: By Attribution 3.0
http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/3.0/

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Category News & Politics
License Standard YouTube License

Transcript[edit | edit source]

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Transcript English (automated captions)

turkey is a transcontinental power and while the European side of the country is secure and calm the situation could not be more different on the Asian side the collapse of the sykes-picot agreement is disintegrating the territorial borders from within and in the subsequent vacuum of power major nations seek to carve their own spheres of influence all these activities directly and indirectly affect Turkey and determine the country's geopolitical objectives in Asia my name is Shivan and welcome to Caspian report although the heartland of the Republic of Turkey surrounds the Sea of Marmara in the West most of the country ninety seven percent to be exact occupies the entirety of the Anatolian Peninsula in the east which separates the Mediterranean and Black Seas but unlike the Marmara region Anatolia is a vast and rugged land that lacks navigable rivers here infrastructure projects and commercial enterprises are less cost-effective the further east of the 36 meridian the more rugged the terrain becomes and the more expensive economic undertakings grow and although the peninsula has a long coastline much of it is smooth this is great for tourism but not so much for trade the lack of deep sea ports along the Anatolian coastline means that maritime access is limited there are of course exceptions in the regions of Adana and Antalya but overall Anatolia is an isolated region historically the geographic outline encouraged security decentralized governance and an introvert culture this is pretty much the opposite of the cosmopolitan Marmara region but Anatolia does provide certain advantages for Turkey for one as a buffer zone it ensures that no Asian power can threaten the Turkish heartland in the West so any foreign military incursion from the Anatolian direction will come at an extraordinary call that most nations are unwilling to risk therefore maintaining complete control over Anatolia is a top priority for Turkish policymakers another advantage Anatolia provides is its access to natural resources Turkey has no significant hydrocarbon resources but it possesses an asset that is far more valuable in one of the world's driest regions Turkey has an abundance of water according to hydrological statistics the Middle East sits at an annual average of 300 cubic meters of water per person meanwhile Turkey has over 3,100 cubic meters of water per person per year the fact that Turkey has tenfold more water than its immediate neighbors to the south is a long-term advantage in favour of Ankara more specifically about 90 percent of the water that flows through the Euphrates River originates from the Anatolian mountains in Turkey for the Tigris River turkeys share of the water sits at 45 percent which is smaller but still significant these river systems fill the breadbasket of the region that is modern Iraq however since turkey controls the upstream riparian of the Tigris Euphrates Basin it gives Ankara decisive long-term geopolitical leverage over its southern neighbours this process is further accelerated by the fact that there are no formal agreements between Iraq Syria and Turkey concerning the management of water policymakers in Ankara are well aware of this reality since the 1960's Turkey has constructed about 600 dams on both rivers with another 600 more planned in the next 40 years many of these dams are part of the southeastern Anatolia project which seeks to boost economic activity in the region especially in the center of the peninsula which hosts an Arab which plateau but the project is about much more than just producing power and watering crops it is about geopolitical leverage by constructing dams turkey seeks to reinforce its political economic and social influence in the area this became evident in the 1990s when the country constructed the Ataturk dam which is one of the largest dams in existence upon completion of the project Turkey held back the flow of the Euphrates River to fill up the reservoir the entire process lasted well over a month and although the Turks had notified their Syrian and Iraqi counterparts beforehand the downstream nations reacted with anger to which the 10 president of Turkey responded by stating that we don't tell the Arabs what to do with their oil so we don't accept any suggestions from them about what to do with our water while this statement is valid it also captures the geopolitical sentiment the situation is further complicated by the population boom in Iraq which is set to grow from 38 million in 2017 to 83 million by 2050 and further increased to 163 million by the end of the century meanwhile Syria's population will grow from 18 million in 2017 to 34 million by mid-century and stabilized as the Arab populations grow water consumption will increase with it as such Syria and Iraq will find themselves increasingly dependent on their northern neighbor for their needs upon completion of the remaining 600 dams Turkey will gain the ability to shape the ecology demography economy and thereby the socio political affairs of Damascus and Baghdad Turkey may not have significant sources of oil like Saudi Arabia and it lacks sophisticated proxy groups that give Iran so much influence but Alcaraz control over the tigris-euphrates basin gives the country unparalleled geopolitical leverage in a way this is Turkey's nuclear option and in this reference the Turks must consider their control over the upstream riparian as a geopolitical objective another faction that is upset with Turkey's growing influence in the tigris-euphrates basin is the PKK as a designated terrorist group the Kurdish PKK has long targeted and attacked the dams in Anatolia top PKK members claimed that Ankara seeks to utilize its control of the flow of water to undermine the mobility of the PKK and there is truth in these claims by flooding some strategic areas turkey can restrict the PKK cross-border movements hostilities with the PKK or further complicated by the fact that turkey is home to about 50 million Kurds who maintain a complex relationship with the central government for decades the PKK sought to capitalize on the social tensions and foreign powers sought to exploit the Turkish PKK conflict to undermine the authority of Ankara this exposure to outside interference is turkey's greatest vulnerability now it is unlikely that the territorial integrity of the country will be compromised in the long run however as long as the PKK remains active and keeps raiding the Turkish dams along the Euphrates and Tigris Rivers Ankara's total control of the upstream riparian is subverted this means that the Turkish government must resolve the conflict with the Kurdish militias before it hopes to utilize its water leverage besides turkeys leverage over its southern neighbours the country also sits in between markets that produce and consume energy to the west European nations seek to diversify their energy supplies for which they currently rely on Russia meanwhile in the east producers of hydrocarbon energy seek to diversify their to European markets at the present much of the energy logistics goes by maritime lanes since East and West are unable to effectively reach one another due to the lack of pipelines the alleged route in between the continents goes through Turkey by taking advantage of its geography turkey could transform itself as a regional energy hub which would further reinforce the country's political leverage throughout the region the trans Anatolian gas pipeline which seeks to deliver Azerbaijani natural gas to Europe is the first tangible effort towards this goal but it's up to Turkish policymakers to find new suppliers and fulfill the country's potential as a vocal point for energy that being said completing this objective has proven to be exceedingly difficult because much of it depends on the regional political affairs the existing disputes between the United States Israel Saudi Arabia and Iran impair regional economic activities Turkey will have to find some way to resolve this stalemate if it has any hopes of turning itself into a regional energy hub east of Anatolia the mountains fuse into the lesser and greater Caucasus Mountains the latter as the name implies is a steep and rugged mountainous terrain that spans from the shores of the Black Sea to the Caspian the greater caucasus mountains form a nearly impassable barrier as there are only two main passages through it the dead band pass in the east is a strip of flat terrain by the Azerbaijani coastline while the tauriel pass runs from the Georgian capital through the center of the mountains the flat terrain north of the passages extend into the Russian heartland currently Russia controls the Italian route and has an understanding with Azerbaijan concerning the Derbent pass however should these passages fall into hostile hands it would expose the entire Russian core in a strategic sense the value of these corridors is second only to Crimea any power that seeks to control the Caucasian passages must first establish a foothold in these South Caucasus which is home to dozens of ethnic groups by far the largest group of people are the Azerbaijanis who happened to share close cultural ties with the Turks Azerbaijan located on the western shore of the Caspian Sea hosts a sizable patchwork of arable land and the capital is rich in energy resources moreover the country borders Russia in the north and Iran in the south any major power that gains a foothold in Azerbaijan would gain the ability to restrain the movements of Russia and Iran and gain access to the abundant volumes of energy resources in the area for Turkey Azerbaijan is the gate to this wealth and influence however al-qura has no direct land Passage to Baku that route must go through Georgia since the fall of the Soviet Union Turkey has worked to install a financial foothold in the Caucasus while the government's in Tbilisi and Baku have sought to escape the grasp of Russia this mutually beneficial relationship has resulted in a number of infrastructure and energy projects that have greatly strengthened Turkey's influence in the area but despite the advances of Ankara Moscow still has the upper hand and the Caucasus as it controls the faith of the separatist regions in Georgia and Azerbaijan this leverage allows the Russians to dictate the political terms and thereby consolidates their control over the Caucasian corridors however should Russia's position ever waver it would be in the interests of Turkey to seize control of the Dairyland their path passages which would give the Turks leverage over the Russians further south in the Levant the situation is equally complicated but here the geographic elements are not steep enough to create coherent lines of divisions ridges along the mount host a variety of factions for example Lebanon is home to dozens of ethnic groups as a result the Levant is a web of alliances and coalition's major powers have often backed one group against another but no one has ever truly dominated this area from a distance it is for this reason that every historical power that once had a presence in the Levant also retreated from it and never looked back whether it's the Ottomans the British the French or the Americans no foreign power is truly interested in sustaining a long term presence in the Levant the exception to this is Iran which seeks to create a corridor to the Mediterranean through Iraq and Syria Tehran may have the upper hand now but in the long term Ankara advantage over the Tigris Euphrates Basin and the Turkish naval presence in the Mediterranean nullifies the Iranian designs this explains why Ankara does not perceive Tehran as a threat and as long as there is no major adversary in the Levant it does not require Turkey's immediate focus in this context much like the Pannonian plain and Greece in Europe the Levant is a place that is best left as it is Turkey's final series of objectives in Asia is to secure assets in the Mediterranean however unlike the Black Sea the eastern Mediterranean has no fixed points that can tip the balance of power there are however a few noteworthy domains such as the islands of Cyprus and Rodos a presence in these islands would provide the Turks with additional security for the Anatolian coastline against an amphibious assault Cyprus is particularly interesting because it functions like a hub that restraints the mobility of the broader region for instance Turkey's physical foothold in the north of the island allows its Navy to project power over the thin coastal strips in the Levant if Ankara were to gain complete control over Cyprus the Turks would be able to expand their influence well into the Suez region and the Nile Delta in Egypt yet the flexible nature of naval influence means that unless all the overseas territories are held nothing is ever truly secure even if somehow all the overseas territories were secured they would be completely dependent on maritime supply lines should one lose an asset it would expose the entire security network which is why maritime power fluctuates this also explains why the Ottoman Empire lost their foothold in Egypt and the Levant within a few decades after it lost Cyprus so in the eastern Mediterranean turkey must search for assets that enhances its position relative to the status quo in general as a nation in between west and east north and south regional disputes and activities often directly and indirectly affect Turkey as such the country cannot afford to remain indifferent it must therefore pursue a proactive policy and secure its geopolitical objectives in Anatolia the Caucasus and the Mediterranean to effectively deal with the challenges on its Asian side turkey must expand and modernize its air and land forces but it also must take care not to pursue goals that outstrip its capabilities even though most of Turkey sits on the asian side including its capital the core of the country surrounds the Sea of Marmara in the West and has a completely different set of objectives which we covered in the European side that geopolitics of Turkey for now this was a Caspian report by initiative and special thanks to our contributors on patreon who suggested this topic and gave us the resources to produce it if you want to support Caspian report to remain independent and self-sustained visit patreon.com slash Caspian report and consider joining our crowdfunding Network you can also make one-time anonymous donations by cryptocurrencies see the screen the description for our Bitcoin and ether address in any case thank you for your time take care a hand saw

Comments[edit | edit source]

48px 📌 Pinned by the uploader
cyclonicleo 2018-01-01
If the Turks can allow some degree of autonomy for the Kurds in the fast east, granting them a small slice of land to have as an independent state within Turkey, then it can effectively pacify and resolve one key hurdle. This will leave it free to focus on its dams, establishing a stranglehold over the water flows into the Levant, then allowing it to procure energy pipelines, both via renewable and carbon-based resources. It can build itself into a major supplier of power to the entire region, increasing its prosperity, allowing expansion of its armed forces and pushing up the economic power and living standards of its people.

For now, the government must make it very clear to its populace what it can achieve so any political unrest can be quelled. Turkey has massive potential - lets see if it can capitalise on it.

Another excellent video Shirvan, well done.

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reallygraceful () 2018-01-01
Thank you, CaspianReport!
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Divan Iseradom 2018-01-01
Great video, but we NEED one on the Iran protests, my man!
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